The maritime shipping industry is facing mounting risks around the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. These threats have intensified following the recent escalation of tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States, especially after the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Global supply chains, oil exports, freight rates, and maritime insurance markets are already reacting, as the world’s largest shipping associations and logistics providers sound the alarm.
The Strait of Hormuz, often referred to as the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, is once again at the center of geopolitical volatility. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, nearly 21 million barrels of oil per day—roughly 20% of global consumption—pass through this narrow waterway. Any disruption, whether due to military conflict, targeted attacks, or the deployment of sea mines, has the potential to send shockwaves through global energy markets and international trade.
Bimco Issues Stern Warning to Global Shipping Industry
Bimco, the world’s largest shipping organization representing shipowners, charterers, brokers, and agents, has issued a dire warning. The security threat to commercial shipping in and around the Arabian Peninsula has significantly escalated. Jakob Larsen, head of maritime security at Bimco, stated that Iran could target commercial ships with anti-ship missiles or drones, especially those affiliated with Israel or the United States. While the preferred targets would be warships and cargo vessels linked to these nations, merchant ships with no direct affiliation could still be at risk.
The threat isn’t limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi rebels, backed by Iran and operating in Yemen, have increased threats against vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. These areas are critical shipping lanes for global commerce. Larsen emphasized that the Houthis may not limit their aggression to U.S.- or Israel-affiliated ships; vessels from neutral or unrelated countries could also be impacted in the chaos.
Shipping Companies Respond to Rising Threats
Major international shipping companies are closely monitoring the situation and adjusting their operations. Hapag-Lloyd, a global container shipping company, confirmed it is still navigating through the Strait of Hormuz but noted that alert levels are high. A company spokesperson emphasized that the security environment is volatile and could change by the hour.
Maersk, another global shipping giant, recently suspended port calls to Haifa, Israel’s largest container terminal. Owned by India’s Adani Group, the $4.2 billion port has become a symbolic and strategic target in the region. Although Iranian missiles have been aimed at Haifa, the port has not sustained damage. Adani CFO Jugeshinder “Robbie” Singh clarified that social media reports claiming the port was ablaze were false.
Rising Freight and Insurance Costs Reflect Increased Risk
The growing tension has already impacted freight costs. According to Xeneta, a freight intelligence firm, spot rates from Shanghai to Jebel Ali—the Arabian Gulf’s largest port—have surged by 55% month-over-month. These spot rates now average $2,761 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU).
Tanker markets are experiencing even more drastic shifts. Spot rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) from the Middle East to China are up 154% week-over-week. Similarly, long-range (LR2) tankers on the Middle East-Japan route have seen a 148% increase, while very large gas carrier (VLGC) rates have risen 33%.
Increased risk has also driven up insurance costs. Marine insurance broker Marsh McLennan reports that hull and machinery insurance rates for vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz have spiked by over 60%. These surcharges reflect the heightened likelihood of attacks, vessel damage, and potential environmental disasters.
Potential Iranian Tactics to Disrupt Shipping
Analysts suggest Iran may use a variety of tactics to disrupt commercial shipping, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. These include:
- Anti-ship Missiles: Iran possesses various cruise and ballistic missile systems capable of striking both commercial and military vessels.
- Drone Swarms: UAVs, especially those with kamikaze-style payloads, can be deployed quickly and unpredictably.
- Sea Mines: While strategically effective, their use is risky due to potential damage to Iran’s own commercial vessels and severe environmental repercussions.
Such actions would not only raise oil prices globally but could also disrupt the already fragile supply chains reliant on safe maritime transit through the Gulf region.
Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz handles less than 4% of global container trade, but it is indispensable for oil and LNG exports from major producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iran itself. Ports such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan serve as transshipment hubs, connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. Dubai in particular has emerged as a regional logistics powerhouse.
Any disruption in these maritime arteries would reverberate through feeder networks connecting South Asia, East Africa, and beyond. The impact would not be limited to energy; commodities, manufactured goods, and food supplies could also face delays and increased costs.
Security Recommendations from Bimco
To mitigate threats, Bimco recommends that merchant vessels in the region:
- Avoid Iranian Coastlines: Minimize proximity to high-risk areas.
- Increase Vigilance: Maintain 24/7 lookouts and heightened alertness.
- Communicate with Naval Forces: Stay in touch with UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) for updates.
- Reinforce Ship Readiness: Ensure watertight integrity and damage control capabilities are in place.
- Report Suspicious Activity: Immediate communication of anomalies could prevent escalations.
While Bimco does not explicitly advise shipowners to withdraw from conflict zones, it stresses that decisions should be based on individual risk assessments involving vessel type, cargo sensitivity, crew safety, and company risk tolerance.
Economic and Political Fallout
The threat to global shipping is already contributing to economic unease. Rising shipping costs will likely translate into higher prices for goods, especially energy. Fuel surcharges, insurance premiums, and route diversions could all drive inflation upward at a time when many countries are still recovering from post-pandemic economic shocks.
Geopolitically, this crisis has the potential to fracture alliances and push neutral countries to choose sides. The U.S. and Israel will likely double down on regional security commitments, while Iran may seek stronger support from Russia and China. This polarization could affect international maritime law, freedom of navigation, and global trade norms.
Key Maritime Chokepoints & Their Global Importance
| Chokepoint | Region | Daily Oil Flow (2023 est.) | Strategic Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | Persian Gulf | 20.9 million barrels/day | 20% of global petroleum liquids transit here. |
| Red Sea (Bab al-Mandab) | Between Yemen & Djibouti | 6.2 million barrels/day | Links Europe, Asia, and the Gulf via the Suez Canal. |
| Gulf of Aden | Arabian Peninsula | Major container transit route | Key access point to East Africa and Asia. |
Recent Freight Rate Changes Due to Conflict
| Shipping Route | Type of Vessel | Rate Increase (%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East – China | VLCC (Crude Tanker) | +154% | Spike due to risk premium & insurance costs |
| Middle East – Japan | LR2 Tanker | +148% | Reflects fuel & escort charges |
| Middle East – Japan | VLGC (Gas Carrier) | +33% | Growing threat of disruption in LPG transit |
| Shanghai – Jebel Ali (UAE) | Container (FEU) | +55% | Surge driven by rerouting and security measures |
Potential Threats to Shipping & Iranian Capabilities
| Threat Type | Origin | Risk Level | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drone Attacks | Iran, Houthis | High | Fast, low-cost, hard-to-detect attacks on moving vessels. |
| Anti-Ship Missiles | Iran | High | Can target warships and commercial ships from the mainland. |
| Sea Mines | Iran (potential) | Moderate | Risky for Iran’s own ships; can cripple global shipping. |
| Cyber Warfare | Iran, Proxy Forces | Moderate | Disrupt navigation systems or port operations. |
Security Recommendations by Bimco for Shipowners
| Recommendation | Description |
|---|---|
| Avoid Iranian Coastlines | Reduces chances of direct or proxy attacks. |
| Maintain Vigilance and Lookouts | Early detection can prevent or reduce attack impact. |
| Communicate with Naval Authorities (UKMTO) | Stay updated on regional threats and safe corridors. |
| Reinforce Watertight Integrity & Fire Safety | Damage control preparedness for missiles or drone attacks. |
| Review Risk Assessment Protocols | Tailor ship response based on cargo, affiliation, and crew safety. |
Conclusion
The Middle East shipping crisis is evolving rapidly. As the geopolitical chessboard continues to shift, the safety of commercial vessels navigating these vital waterways remains uncertain. For shipping companies, insurers, global traders, and governments alike, this is a moment of heightened vigilance and strategic recalibration.
The Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden are no longer just maritime routes—they are now flashpoints in a wider conflict with global consequences. Whether through drone attacks, missile strikes, or economic warfare, the risks to maritime trade are real, rising, and reverberating through every link in the global supply chain.
As international bodies and shipping alliances assess the unfolding crisis, the focus must be on resilience, preparedness, and collaboration to ensure the safe passage of vessels and the stability of global commerce.
Global Shipping Disruption 2025 FAQs
What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it strategically important?
Answer:
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Nearly 21 million barrels of oil pass through it daily, accounting for approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Disruption here can spike global oil prices, delay shipments, and destabilize energy markets.
How has the Iran-US conflict affected global shipping routes in 2025?
Answer:
The conflict has led to heightened risks for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden. Shipping companies have increased security measures, rerouted vessels, and faced soaring insurance and freight costs. The risk of drone attacks, missile strikes, and sea mines has significantly disrupted logistics operations in the region.
Are commercial ships still passing through the Strait of Hormuz?
Answer:
Yes, commercial ships, including those of companies like Hapag-Lloyd, are still navigating the Strait of Hormuz. However, alert levels are high, and the situation is fluid. Companies are constantly assessing the threat environment and may adjust routes or halt passage depending on developments.
What kind of attacks are shipping companies concerned about?
Answer:
Shipping companies are concerned about anti-ship missile attacks, kamikaze drones, sea mines, and potential cyberattacks on navigation systems. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen also pose a threat, particularly to ships affiliated with Israel or the United States.
How have freight and insurance costs been affected?
Answer:
Freight costs have surged dramatically. For instance, VLCC spot rates from the Middle East to China are up 154% week-over-week. Hull and machinery insurance rates for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have increased by over 60%, reflecting the higher threat level and security risks.
Is it safe for neutral or non-affiliated ships to sail through these regions?
Answer:
While the primary targets are U.S. or Israel-affiliated vessels, non-affiliated ships are not immune. Maritime security experts advise all ships to exercise extreme caution, avoid risky coastlines, maintain communication with naval forces, and implement robust onboard security protocols.
What precautions are shipping companies advised to take?
Answer:
Bimco recommends:
- Avoiding Iranian coastlines
- Maintaining round-the-clock vigilance
- Staying in contact with UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)
- Strengthening onboard damage control and fire safety systems
- Updating security risk assessments regularly
Could Iran lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz?
Answer:
Yes, Iran has the capability to deploy sea mines, but doing so carries significant risks, including damaging its own shipping interests and causing environmental disasters. Nevertheless, it remains a possible tactic in the event of wider escalation.
Which ports are most affected by the conflict?
Answer:
Ports in Haifa (Israel), Jebel Ali (UAE), and Khor Fakkan are under scrutiny. Maersk has suspended calls to Haifa due to missile threats, while Jebel Ali has seen shipping rate surges and security adjustments.
How long could these shipping disruptions last?
Answer:
The duration of disruptions depends on diplomatic outcomes and further military actions. Shipping risks could escalate quickly or stabilize if de-escalation efforts succeed. For now, maritime operators remain on high alert with no end in sight.