Introduction: Significance of the 2025 Assembly Bypolls
The Assembly Bypoll Elections of 2025, conducted on June 19, emerged as a crucial political event ahead of the 2027 state elections. Contests in five constituencies—Nilambur (Kerala), Ludhiana West (Punjab), Kadi & Visavadar (Gujarat), and Kaliganj (West Bengal)—saw fierce political battles among the BJP, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Trinamool Congress (TMC).
More than just routine by-elections, these contests served as litmus tests for ruling and opposition parties alike—revealing the public pulse, political shifts, and early indications of 2027 trends.
Seat-Wise Result Overview
| Constituency | State | Winning Party | Winning Candidate | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nilambur | Kerala | Congress (UDF) | Aryadan Shoukath | 11,000+ votes |
| Visavadar | Gujarat | AAP | Gopal Italia | 17,000+ votes |
| Kadi | Gujarat | BJP | Rajendra Chavda | 38,000+ votes |
| Ludhiana West | Punjab | AAP | Sanjeev Arora | 5,000+ (lead) |
| Kaliganj | West Bengal | TMC (Leading) | Alifa Ahmed | Significant Lead |
Congress Victory in Kerala’s Nilambur: Symbolic and Strategic
Congress scored a crucial win in Nilambur, a traditionally Left-leaning seat in Kerala’s Malappuram district.
Winner: Aryadan Shoukath (Congress – UDF)
- Defeated CPI(M)’s M Swaraj.
- Victory margin: Over 11,000 votes.
- Constituency is part of Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, held by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
Priyanka Gandhi’s Statement
Priyanka called it a “victory of constitutional values and collective effort”. She praised the UDF’s unity and thanked Nilambur’s people for their trust.
“This win symbolizes people’s belief in Congress’s vision of inclusive development,” she tweeted.
This bypoll result is not just electoral—it is symbolic of Congress’s foothold in southern India ahead of 2026 Kerala Assembly elections.
AAP’s Rise: Wins in Gujarat and Punjab
Visavadar, Gujarat – Gopal Italia Wins
- AAP’s former state president Gopal Italia defeated BJP’s Kirit Patel by over 17,000 votes.
- First AAP win in Gujarat since 2007 in this seat.
- Marks a new chapter for AAP’s Gujarat presence.
Ludhiana West, Punjab – Sanjeev Arora (Leading)
- Arora is heading towards victory over Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu.
- Reflects continued support for the Bhagwant Mann government.
Manish Sisodia’s Reaction
Sisodia called the twin victories a “semi-final” ahead of Punjab Assembly polls in 2027. He noted that Gopal Italia would emerge as a “sharp national voice.”
These wins restore momentum for AAP post setbacks in Delhi and showcase its pan-India ambitions.
BJP’s Limited Success in Kadi, Gujarat
The BJP managed to retain only the Kadi seat in Gujarat, a disappointing outcome for a party accustomed to sweeping the state.
Winner: Rajendra Chavda (BJP)
- Defeated Congress’s Ramesh Chavda.
- Victory margin: Nearly 40,000 votes.
- Maintains BJP control in Mehsana district.
While this was a safe seat, the party’s loss in Visavadar to AAP is seen as a red flag and may trigger introspection in state leadership.
TMC Leads in Kaliganj, West Bengal
The Trinamool Congress (TMC), under CM Mamata Banerjee, is leading in Kaliganj—a rural, Muslim-majority seat.
Candidate: Alifa Ahmed
- Daughter of the late MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed, whose death necessitated the bypoll.
- Has a significant lead over Congress’s Kabil Uddin Shaaikh.
- Consolidates TMC’s grip on Murshidabad region.
This bypoll reinforces TMC’s dominance in Bengal, especially post-Lok Sabha 2024 where the party had lost ground to BJP.
Assembly Bypoll Election Results 2025: AAP Shocks Gujarat, Congress Retains Kerala, BJP Struggles, TMC Holds Strong in Bengal
The 2025 Assembly Bypoll Elections, conducted on June 19 across four Indian states—Kerala, Gujarat, Punjab, and West Bengal—turned out to be a high-voltage political affair that went beyond just local contests. The results, announced on June 23, were closely watched as they offered early signals of public sentiment ahead of the 2026 state elections and possibly even the 2027 General Elections. A total of five constituencies went to polls: Nilambur in Kerala, Kadi and Visavadar in Gujarat, Ludhiana West in Punjab, and Kaliganj in West Bengal. Each of these seats saw a political contest among the country’s major players—the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Trinamool Congress (TMC). What unfolded was a politically telling story that had its share of surprises, triumphs, and setbacks.
In Kerala’s Nilambur, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) secured a critical victory, with Aryadan Shoukath emerging victorious against CPI(M)’s M Swaraj by a margin of over 11,000 votes. The win carried both strategic and symbolic importance for the Congress. Nilambur, part of the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat currently held by Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, had become a prestige contest. The seat was previously held by P.V. Anvar, who had shifted allegiance to the TMC, adding more drama to the local political dynamic. Shoukath’s win reaffirmed Congress’s hold in Kerala, particularly in Left-leaning areas, and it sent a strong message that the UDF continues to enjoy grassroots support. Priyanka Gandhi, celebrating the win, expressed gratitude to the voters of Nilambur and applauded the unity of Congress workers. She termed the victory a result of dedicated teamwork and constitutional commitment, and said the support shown by Nilambur’s people would serve as a guiding light for the party’s future journey.
The big headline, however, came from Gujarat. In a shocking development, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) registered a resounding victory in Visavadar, a seat traditionally dominated by the BJP. AAP’s Gopal Italia, a former state party president and a well-known youth leader, defeated BJP’s Kirit Patel by more than 17,000 votes. This result came as a jolt to the BJP, which has long considered Gujarat its bastion. Italia’s win is seen as a strategic breakthrough for AAP, signaling its rising stature in the state beyond just urban centers like Surat and Ahmedabad. Italia’s grassroots campaign focusing on education, jobs, and anti-corruption apparently struck a chord with voters, especially the younger demographic. AAP workers celebrated the victory as a signal of things to come, with Manish Sisodia, former Delhi Deputy CM and senior party leader, calling it the “semi-final” ahead of the 2027 elections. Sisodia also praised Italia as a “sharp and emerging national voice” and expressed confidence that this win would motivate AAP’s cadre across India.
AAP’s performance didn’t end in Gujarat. The party also made its presence felt in Punjab, where Sanjeev Arora is on the verge of victory in the Ludhiana West constituency. Although the final numbers were still awaited, Arora maintained a consistent lead over Congress veteran Bharat Bhushan Ashu. If confirmed, the win would further consolidate AAP’s position in Punjab, where it currently holds the reins under Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. The Ludhiana West bypoll was seen as a test of AAP’s governance in the state, especially after recent criticism over administrative lapses and power shortages. Sisodia noted that this win would boost the morale of party workers in Punjab and demonstrate that the public continues to place its faith in the Mann government. He emphasized that the result endorsed the party’s delivery on promises related to education, healthcare, and electricity.
Meanwhile, the BJP, which had gone into the bypolls expecting a clean sweep in Gujarat, managed to win only one seat—Kadi. Rajendra Chavda, the party’s candidate, secured a landslide victory over Congress’s Ramesh Chavda, winning by a margin of more than 38,000 votes. This was the only silver lining for the BJP, which otherwise found itself on the back foot. Kadi is located in Gujarat’s Mehsana district, a saffron stronghold, and the victory helped the party save face after its loss in Visavadar. However, political observers note that the Visavadar result points to a shifting voter landscape in Gujarat. The BJP’s dominance in the state, unchallenged for more than two decades, is now facing new headwinds from AAP’s grassroots-level mobilization.
In West Bengal’s Kaliganj constituency, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is leading, with Alifa Ahmed, daughter of the deceased MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed, holding a comfortable edge over her Congress rival Kabil Uddin Shaaikh. Although the final result is yet to be declared, the trends indicate another hold for the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, which continues to retain its dominance in the region despite the BJP’s growing ambitions in Bengal. Kaliganj, a rural, Muslim-majority constituency, has traditionally supported the TMC, and this bypoll further cements its stronghold in Murshidabad district. With Mamata Banerjee expected to address party workers soon, the TMC is already in celebration mode, viewing this as a reaffirmation of public trust in the wake of national-level opposition coalition dynamics.
The 2025 bypolls were necessitated due to the deaths and resignations of sitting MLAs. In Ludhiana West (Punjab), Kaliganj (West Bengal), and Visavadar (Gujarat), the vacancies arose due to the passing of incumbent legislators. Meanwhile, Nilambur in Kerala and Kadi in Gujarat saw bypolls because of the resignation of sitting MLAs. These developments added an emotional dimension to several campaigns, particularly in Kaliganj, where Alifa Ahmed’s candidacy came following her father’s demise.
These election results also sparked strong reactions across party lines. The Congress, despite its many challenges at the national level, celebrated Nilambur as a morale booster. Priyanka Gandhi’s emotional appeal and messaging resonated strongly with Congress workers. AAP’s twin victories, especially in Gujarat, stunned political analysts and redefined the party’s trajectory as a potential national force beyond Delhi and Punjab. Manish Sisodia’s characterization of the results as a “semi-final” underscores how seriously AAP is taking its expansion plans. For the BJP, while the Kadi win maintains its image as Gujarat’s dominant party, the loss in Visavadar has raised questions about complacency and overconfidence, with internal reviews likely to follow. The TMC, riding high on its expected Kaliganj win, will likely use this to assert itself more strongly within the opposition INDIA alliance.
From a macro-political perspective, these bypolls have offered significant insights into the current mood of the electorate. Voters appear increasingly focused on performance and regional issues rather than traditional loyalty to major parties. The success of AAP in Gujarat shows that the electorate is open to alternatives when they align with local concerns. The Congress win in Kerala confirms that the grand old party can still dominate pockets of India if it focuses on local leadership and unity. The BJP, though still a national powerhouse, has been reminded that no seat is permanently secure. And the TMC continues to display resilience and strategic depth in its home turf.
Importantly, these results will influence upcoming elections in Kerala, Punjab, and Gujarat, scheduled for 2026, and possibly impact strategic planning for the 2027 General Elections. For political strategists, the results serve as an early diagnostic tool, indicating where alliances may be needed, where damage control is essential, and where new narratives must be shaped.
In conclusion, the 2025 Assembly Bypoll Elections have turned out to be much more than a routine mid-term exercise. They’ve not only changed the political map in some regions but have also reset expectations for the major parties. Congress has something to cheer about in the South; AAP has found new life and momentum; the BJP, though still powerful, has lessons to learn; and TMC stands firm in its home territory. The message from the people is loud and clear: performance, accountability, and regional connect matter. With the political calendar heating up and the 2026 state elections around the corner, these results will shape strategies, narratives, and alliances in the months ahead. Political India just got a lot more interesting.
Political Reactions From Across the Spectrum
Congress
- Priyanka Gandhi hailed teamwork, constitutional values.
- Described Nilambur win as a moral and electoral victory.
AAP
- Manish Sisodia: “People of Punjab and Gujarat are with us. This is a trailer for 2027.”
- Gopal Italia: Set to be a rising national leader.
BJP
- Remained silent on Visavadar loss.
- Gujarat CM Bhupendra Patel congratulated Rajendra Chavda on Kadi victory, but avoided broader commentary.
TMC
- Party workers celebrated Alifa Ahmed’s lead.
- Mamata Banerjee likely to speak post-final results.
Voter Sentiment and Message Ahead of 2027 Elections
These bypolls have sent a clear message to major political players:
| Party | Message from Voters |
|---|---|
| Congress | Still relevant in Kerala, needs to consolidate gains. |
| AAP | Gains traction outside Delhi, emerging as national challenger. |
| BJP | Dented in Gujarat, must reconnect with rural voters. |
| TMC | Remains strong in Bengal, especially in minority-dominated areas. |
Voter behavior reveals a demand for performance and regional accountability, not just party loyalty.
Takeaways and Future Outlook
- Congress’s Kerala win is a major morale booster ahead of 2026 Assembly elections.
- AAP’s dual wins signal growing acceptance beyond Delhi.
- BJP’s loss in Visavadar could indicate voter fatigue in Gujarat.
- TMC’s Kaliganj lead shows regional parties are still dominant in strongholds.
- The 2025 bypolls serve as a bellwether for the 2027 elections.
FAQs About Assembly Bypoll Elections 2025
1. Why were the 2025 Assembly bypolls held?
The bypolls were held due to:
- Deaths of sitting MLAs in Kaliganj, Visavadar, and Ludhiana West.
- Resignations in Nilambur and Kadi.
2. Who are the big winners in the 2025 bypolls?
- Congress: Aryadan Shoukath in Nilambur.
- AAP: Gopal Italia (Visavadar), Sanjeev Arora (Ludhiana West).
- BJP: Rajendra Chavda (Kadi).
- TMC: Alifa Ahmed is leading in Kaliganj.
3. What does AAP’s Gujarat win mean?
It breaks BJP’s dominance and signals AAP’s national potential in rural seats.
4. Is this a sign of BJP losing ground?
Not entirely. BJP retained Kadi with a large margin, but its defeat in Visavadar shows fractures in voter loyalty.
5. When are the next big elections?
Major Assembly Elections will be held in Kerala, Punjab, and Gujarat in 2026, followed by General Elections in 2029.